# Will an OpenAI model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Text Arena Leaderboard at the end of August 2026?

<table class="pythia-summary">
<tr><th>Forecast at</th><td>2026-08-03 10:00 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><th>Source</th><td>Metaculus AI Benchmark tournament</td></tr>
<tr><th>Engine</th><td>fast</td></tr>
<tr><th>Prediction</th><td><strong>43.5%</strong> (P yes)</td></tr>
</table>

*This forecast was generated by the Pythia ensemble and submitted to the [Metaculus AI Benchmark](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/) tournament. [View the question on Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/44942/).*