# What will be the margin of seats won by Labour over National in the 2026 New Zealand general election?

<table class="pythia-summary">
<tr><th>Forecast at</th><td>2026-09-28 14:20 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><th>Source</th><td>Metaculus AI Benchmark tournament</td></tr>
<tr><th>Engine</th><td>ensemble</td></tr>
<tr><th>P10</th><td>-9.5</td></tr>
<tr><th>P50 (median)</th><td><strong>1.5</strong></td></tr>
<tr><th>P90</th><td>11.5</td></tr>
</table>

*This forecast was generated by the Pythia ensemble and submitted to the [Metaculus AI Benchmark](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/) tournament. [View the question on Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/45847/).*