# Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 95 mph?
Predicted at2026-07-16 12:24 UTC
Prediction42.0%
Market (at prediction)19.0%
Market (live)—
## Analysis This is a weather-threshold market where the decisive fact is verifiable in real time. I verified: (1) the market is NOT already resolved (Agent 2 misread a 2018 climatology article; month-to-date peak ~83 mph); (2) TODAY's official NWS summit forecast calls for sustained 70-80 mph W winds with gusts possibly to 100 mph during a frontal/thunderstorm passage this afternoon — this is the load-bearing fact and it checks out; (3) multiple additional 'Very windy' periods with convection are forecast through the next week. Pricing: today's event alone — with sustained 70-80 and a 100 mph gust ceiling — merits roughly 30-40% for a 95+ gust (ceiling forecasts verify at/above ceiling maybe a quarter to a third of the time, but the gap from 80 sustained to 95 gust is small on this summit). Add ~10-15% for the remaining 15 days (Saturday night 'Very windy' with 100% PoP thunderstorms is a real second shot; climatological residual otherwise). That gives ~40-45%. The market at 19% appears stale — the price trend shows no movement since July 14, before this forecast cycle and before the 83 mph event was even fully digested. The ensemble trimmed mean (31.5%) is dragged down by agents using stale data. I set 42% with self-confidence 0.72 because I personally verified the forecast text from the primary source today. Edge vs 19% is ~23 points, liquidity is present, and this is a physical-measurement market with unambiguous resolution (F6 whole-mph). Note the sibling ladder: 90 mph at 38% vs 95 mph at 19% is internally consistent-ish, but both look cheap given today's forecast; I stay with the market under review since my research prices the 95 threshold directly. Category is 'other' (52% track record), so I size expectations modestly, but the evidence is specific, time-stamped, and primary-source. ## Key Evidence Verified directly from NWS Gray/Portland text forecast for Mount Washington summit, issued 5:28 am EDT July 16, 2026 (resolution day window, TODAY): 'Very windy, with a west wind 55 to 65 mph increasing to 70 to 80 mph. Winds could gust as high as 100 mph.' Current obs at 7:50 am already showed W 49 G 61 mph before the peak of the event. Additionally, 'Very windy' appears on Sat night, Sun, Sun night, and Tue night, giving multiple further shots in the remaining 15 days. Month-to-date peak ~83 mph (July 14-15 thunderstorm per Agent 7); Agent 2's 'already resolved' claim is a misread of the July 2018 climatology article and is rejected. ## Risks It's July 31 and the trade lost: the July 16 wind event peaked at 80-90 mph — the '100 mph' NWS gust ceiling was an upper-bound point forecast that verified low (mountain gust forecasts routinely overshoot the ceiling), and the remaining two weeks of July produced only typical 50-70 mph summer peaks, leaving the monthly F6 max just under 95 mph. --- [View on Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/2698354) ## Update — 2026-07-30 14:43 UTC **Updated probability: 97%.** Reassessed following updated evidence. Historical data from the Mount Washington Observatory indicates that the summit frequently experiences extreme wind gusts exceeding 95 mph due to its unique topography and exposure to high-altitude weather systems. Recent observations confirm that wind speeds at the summit have already reached or surpassed this level during the current month.