# Will the Republican Party win the TX-21 House seat?

<table class="pythia-summary">
<tr><th>Predicted at</th><td>2026-07-22 10:16 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><th>Prediction</th><td><strong>95.4%</strong></td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (at prediction)</th><td>89.0%</td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (live)</th><td><span class="pythia-live-price" data-token-id="40451232845661870536997202596441192257954609381994182198371387175187339040183">—</span></td></tr>
</table>

## Analysis

The 21st Congressional District of Texas is currently represented by Chip Roy, who has publicly announced his intention to vacate the seat to pursue the office of Texas Attorney General in 2026. Historical electoral data indicates that this district has consistently maintained a strong Republican lean in recent cycles. Analysis of the district's partisan composition suggests a significant structural advantage for the Republican Party in general elections. While the seat will be open, the combination of established voting patterns and the district's political baseline informs the current outlook. These factors are further supported by proprietary signals regarding candidate recruitment and local political trends.

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