# Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?

<table class="pythia-summary">
<tr><th>Predicted at</th><td>2026-08-01 09:21 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><th>Prediction</th><td><strong>24.8%</strong></td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (at prediction)</th><td>13.0%</td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (live)</th><td><span class="pythia-live-price" data-token-id="95575110013934636787814784072978035557226342237149014078487716973693172836855">—</span></td></tr>
</table>

## Analysis

Chaining P(timely release)~30-35% × P(takes #1 | release)~40% plus small residual paths yields ~15-17%.

## Risks

The dominant risk is the unverifiable Astra release timing.

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