# Will Ricardo Ferraço win the Governor of Espírito Santo election?

<table class="pythia-summary">
<tr><th>Predicted at</th><td>2026-08-22 09:16 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><th>Prediction</th><td><strong>71.5%</strong></td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (at prediction)</th><td>77.5%</td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (live)</th><td><span class="pythia-live-price" data-token-id="93805751597790750556097010575938012878674141785102892948817921368876135763852">—</span></td></tr>
</table>

## Analysis

Ricardo Ferraço is currently serving as the Governor of Espírito Santo and is seeking re-election in the 2026 gubernatorial race. Recent polling data from sources such as Real Time Big Data and Quaest indicates that he maintains a lead over his primary opponents. Analysis of these survey results shows consistent growth in his support levels since earlier in the year. While the election field includes five candidates competing for the Palácio Anchieta, Ferraço's status as the incumbent provides a significant base of support. These public polling trends, combined with undisclosed proprietary signals, form the basis for the current outlook on the election outcome.

## Key Evidence

Fresh news check confirms the Apex scandal remains focused on ex-president Cinelli, not Ferraço, neutralizing the low outlier's main concern; no post-scandal poll yet exists.

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