# Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

<table class="pythia-summary">
<tr><th>Predicted at</th><td>2026-09-08 12:40 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><th>Prediction</th><td><strong>22.3%</strong></td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (at prediction)</th><td>45.5%</td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (live)</th><td><span class="pythia-live-price" data-token-id="85497076524642383629534976200435443780684864932219506535413178556172263076592">—</span></td></tr>
</table>

## Analysis

The domestic opening weekend for 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' is recorded at approximately $360 million, a figure that positions it as a top-tier performer for the 2026 calendar year. Reports from Deadline and Variety indicate that this opening surpassed historical benchmarks, including 'Avengers: Endgame,' to set a new record for the largest domestic opening. While the film holds the top spot, the final ranking for the second-best opening remains subject to the performance of other major releases throughout the remainder of the year. Analysis of industry data from The-numbers and Boxofficemojo suggests that competition for the remaining top positions is significant. Proprietary signals also account for potential shifts in market dynamics that could influence the final year-end box office standings.

## Key Evidence

Spider-Man: Brand New Day's finalized $360.09M opening is the all-time domestic record; YES requires Avengers: Doomsday (the only candidate) to beat it. Doomsday tracks ~$300M (Aug 23), no December release has ever opened above ~$260M (NWH), and Doomsday cedes IMAX exclusivity to same-day Dune: Part Three. News sweep (Sep 8) confirms no date change and no new tracking; only soft pro-YES buzz (test screenings reportedly above Endgame).

## Risks

Avengers: Doomsday demand snowballs (record presales, test screenings scoring above Endgame), Dune: Part Three moves off Dec 18 or IMAX allocation shifts, and Doomsday opens $365M+ — repeating the pattern of Avengers films smashing long-lead tracking by 20-40%, setting a new all-time record and dropping Spider-Man to #2.

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