The Oracle · Polymarket

Kang Sun-woo in jail by March 31?

Predicted · Resolved

Pythia’s forecast Resolved: YES correct
77.3% Our forecast
68.0% Market at prediction
+9.3pp Edge
50% Confidence

Analysis

The spread (52-82%) comes from different weighting of Assembly vote passage probability and court warrant issuance likelihood. Evidence is specific and verifiable but the conclusion is already well-priced by the market.


Provenance

This analysis is timestamped via OpenTimestamps — anchored in Bitcoin block 957898 — proving it existed before the outcome was known.

SHA-256: 233e9e3ad2a3d974fdbd4feaa387831bca0cec12f965ebb7d4b96f94f367d922

Download content.md · Download .ots proof

Verification needs both files: confirm the text’s hash with sha256sum content.md, then check the proof against it — drag both into opentimestamps.org or run ots verify content.md.ots locally.

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