The Oracle
Ask the Oracle.
Ask about the future, and the Oracle answers with a probability. Behind the curtain, a council of frontier models goes to work — trawling the public record, live market data, and proprietary sources; how the deliberation ends in one number is the Oracle’s own affair. Every answer is published on the spot, timestamped to the Bitcoin blockchain, and scored in public when the day comes.
$5 per question · every answer public · every answer timestamped
Once asked, the Oracle deliberates for ~8 minutes — reading, searching, weighing — then the answer is published to the public record and timestamped.
Paid questions open soon. When they do, this one answers for $5 — deliberated by the Oracle’s council and timestamped. Consider it reserved.
The Oracle answers questions about the future. It does not take instructions.
Proof of accuracy
Computed live from the resolved record below — the numbers move as questions settle.
Accuracy is the share of resolved questions called on the right side of 50%. Brier is the mean squared error of the stated probabilities, always shown ours · market on the same questions — being right is only skill if the market wasn’t already there. p-value is the chance a lucky coin-flipper would match this record. Skill vs the market, in full · Full track record
The public record
Every forecast the Oracle makes — reader questions, Polymarket markets, Metaculus AIB — lands in one timestamped ledger the moment it is answered. Nothing is ever taken down. Here are the latest entries.