Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1% and 2%?

Analysis

The UK economy has demonstrated consistent, moderate growth, with annual GDP figures recorded at 1.1% in 2024 and 1.3% in 2025. Data from the first half of 2026 indicates a steady performance, with quarterly growth rates of 0.6% and 0.5% respectively. Furthermore, recent economic bulletins show a three-month growth trend of 0.7% leading into the latter half of the year. These figures, supported by recent upward revisions in growth projections from international institutions, suggest the economy is maintaining a trajectory within the 1% to 2% range. Undisclosed sources further corroborate this stability, aligning with the observed historical base rates and current quarterly momentum.

Key Evidence

ONS/Reuters: Q2 2026 GDP +0.5% q/q (revised up), ~1.2% y/y; H1 2026 UK top of G7. With that carry-over, annual 2026 growth lands ~1.2-1.5% unless H2 contracts materially.

Risks

Q3/Q4 2026 stagnate or contract (energy shock, weak confidence), dragging the annual figure to 0.9x%, or the Feb 2027 first estimate includes revisions that shift 2026 below the 1% line; alternatively a surprisingly strong H2 plus upward revisions push the figure above 2% (very unlikely).