Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?

Analysis

Ensemble trimmed mean 23.3% vs market 13.2% (~10pp edge, standard-review tier). Consensus fact base verified current: GDPNow 1.3% (July 8), NY Fed 2.7%, SPF/WSJ ~2.1%. A 50/50 mixture of GDPNow-centered N(1.3, 0.7) and consensus-centered N(2.1, 0.9) gives ~21% for the [1.0, 1.5) bracket; even the pure-consensus model gives ~14–15%. The market price only makes sense with near-zero weight on the tracker with the best advance-print record. Sibling ladder confirms the market's mass is anchored on consensus (2.0–2.5 at 38%, itself likely overpriced given no 0.5pp bracket sustains 38% with realistic nowcast error), but YES here at 13.2% has the higher EV per dollar. Policy/econ is our strongest measured category (90% direction). Main risk is tomorrow's GDPNow update jumping on strong retail sales — a real but priced-in risk given I hold final at 22%, not the agents' upper range.

Key Evidence

Atlanta Fed GDPNow at 1.3% (verified current as of July 8, next update July 16) sits dead-center in the 1.0–1.5% bracket; GDPNow is purpose-built to mimic BEA advance-estimate accounting and is the best short-horizon predictor of the advance print. Even a pure consensus-centered distribution (2.1%, SD 0.9) yields ~14–15% for this bracket, above the 13.2% market price; any positive weight on GDPNow pushes fair value to 20–25%.

Risks

The July 16 GDPNow update (or the July 28 advance goods-trade report) reverses the net-export drag — strong June retail sales lift PCE tracking — and GDPNow jumps to 1.7–2.0%, with the advance print landing at 1.8–2.3%, missing the bracket on the high side just as the consensus/NY Fed models predicted.

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