The Oracle · Polymarket

Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in February 2026 be between 2.2% and 2.4%?

Predicted · Resolved

Pythia’s forecast Resolved: NO correct
3.6% Our forecast
14.0% Market at prediction
-10.4pp Edge
65% Confidence

Analysis

Argentina's monthly inflation has consistently remained at or above 2.4% throughout the period from September 2025 to January 2026. Achieving a rate between 2.2% and 2.4% in February 2026 would require a notable deceleration from the most recent monthly figures. Historical data indicates that inflation rates in this specific narrow range occur with relatively low frequency. While some projections lean toward lower figures, the prevailing upward trend in recent months suggests that maintaining a rate within this target window is statistically challenging. Consequently, the evidence points toward a lower likelihood of the inflation rate landing precisely within this narrow interval.


Provenance

This analysis is timestamped via OpenTimestamps — anchored in Bitcoin block 957898 — proving it existed before the outcome was known.

SHA-256: c8e8ea6e7e335068fa6bd3af589af1ff1015ab42627f57264ade8acfd61f3a96

Download content.md · Download .ots proof

Verification needs both files: confirm the text’s hash with sha256sum content.md, then check the proof against it — drag both into opentimestamps.org or run ots verify content.md.ots locally.

This page is for informational and research purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial advice.