Will the Movement for Socialism (MAS-IPSP) win the most gubernatorial elections in Bolivia in 2026?

Analysis

The Movement for Socialism (MAS-IPSP) has historically maintained a strong electoral position, securing a majority of governorships in the 2010, 2015, and 2021 election cycles. However, the 2025 general elections marked a significant structural shift in the political landscape, as the party's legislative presence collapsed to only two seats in the Chamber of Deputies and zero in the Senate. This decline suggests that the party's previous electoral dominance no longer reflects current voter sentiment. Given this recent performance, the party faces substantial challenges in regaining the support necessary to win the most gubernatorial seats in 2026. Consequently, the historical base rate is considered less predictive than the evidence of the party's recent electoral contraction.