The Oracle · Polymarket
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
Predicted · Resolved
Analysis
All 8 agents unanimously agree at 99% probability. The event has already occurred: Khamenei was killed on February 28, 2026 in confirmed US-Israeli airstrikes. This was verified by Iranian state media, every major international news outlet, the White House, and a successor has already been appointed. The market is correctly priced at 100%. There is zero actionable edge - the market price and the true probability are both effectively 100%. Buying YES at 100% yields no profit. There is no trade to make here regardless of how certain the outcome is.
Key Evidence
Ali Khamenei was killed on February 28, 2026 in joint US-Israeli airstrikes, confirmed by Iranian state media, all major international news outlets (Reuters, CNN, BBC, Al Jazeera, AP), and the White House. Successor Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed by the Assembly of Experts in early March 2026.
Risks
Market is at 100% and my estimate is 99% - there is no actionable edge. The 1% residual accounts for theoretical but implausible scenarios like coordinated global disinformation.
Provenance
This analysis is timestamped via OpenTimestamps — anchored in Bitcoin block 957898 — proving it existed before the outcome was known.
SHA-256: 22989baaf8e228b83a3473324858ff82721f339b77bf832f1097abf968b57b6f
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