Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between -0.5% and 0.0%?

Analysis

Trimmed ensemble 8.8% vs market 10.5% — a 1.7% gap, far below the 5% trade threshold. My verification resolved the one live factual dispute (June consumption is positive per INEGI's IOCP, not -4.9%), which discounts the higher agent estimates. However, the timely estimate resolves on an SA Y/Y figure that historically prints well below unadjusted tracking (Q2 2025: 0.1% vs 1.2%), so the true center is likely +0.5-1.0% rather than the +1.3% unadjusted tracking suggests — meaning this bracket deserves a real but small tail probability (~9%), essentially matching the market. I also evaluated redirecting to the 1.0-1.5% sibling (20%) since unadjusted tracking centers there, but the SA methodology noise means I cannot confidently distinguish 0.5-1.0 from 1.0-1.5 to a ±0.5pp precision; the market's modal mass on 0.5-1.0 (25%) is consistent with my SA arithmetic. No mispricing large or verifiable enough to trade.

Key Evidence

April 2026 IGAE +2.2% Y/Y (actual), May IOAE +1.1% Y/Y nowcast, and INEGI's July 16 IOCP showing June private consumption +2.6% Y/Y (+0.1% m/m) — contradicting Agent 8's bearish BBVA -4.9% June consumption claim. Q1 2026 Y/Y was already positive (+0.2% timely). SA-frame arithmetic puts Q2 SA Y/Y around +0.4% to +1.0%, making the [-0.5%, 0.0%) bracket a ~8-11% tail — in line with both the ensemble (8.8%) and the market (10.5%).

Risks

It's July 30 and the trade lost: the timely estimate's seasonally-adjusted Y/Y figure printed just below zero (e.g., -0.1%) because the SA series diverged sharply from the unadjusted IGAE tracking (as it did in Q2 2025: 0.1% timely vs ~1.2% unadjusted) and June activity was weaker than the IOCP consumption nowcast suggested. This is exactly why the edge is too thin to trade.