Will Reinaldo Azambuja win the most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso do Sul Senate election?

Analysis

Reinaldo Azambuja currently maintains a consistent lead in multiple public opinion surveys regarding the 2026 Senate race in Mato Grosso do Sul. Data from various polling institutes, including Real Time Big Data and Instituto Ranking Brasil Inteligência, consistently place him at the forefront of the field. This electoral context is supported by reports from outlets such as Globo and Metropoles, which highlight his strong standing as the election date approaches. While proprietary signals provide additional context, the public polling data remains the primary indicator of his current trajectory. The election will determine two Senate seats, and current trends suggest Azambuja is well-positioned to secure one of the top spots.

Key Evidence

Four independent August 2026 polls (Real Time Big Data, IPR, Quaest, Ranking Brasil) all show Azambuja leading by 6-14 points on both first- and second-vote metrics; lowest rejection rate (7%); Nelsinho Trad withdrew onto his ticket. Counterweight: very high volatility (86% spontaneous undecided, 55% persuadable) 30 days out.

Risks

Capitão Contar (same PL party, strong Bolsonarista base, 43% in 2022 governor runoff) surges in the final month as the 21% undecided / 55% persuadable electorate breaks his way, or two-vote ballot-splitting dynamics push another candidate past Azambuja's topline.