The Oracle · Polymarket

Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?

Predicted · Resolved

Pythia’s forecast Resolved: NO correct
25.5% Our forecast
65.5% Market at prediction
-40.0pp Edge
55% Confidence

Analysis

Jerome Powell's term as Chair of the Federal Reserve concludes on May 15, 2026, but his appointment as a member of the Board of Governors extends until January 2028. While historical data indicates that approximately 90% of past Fed Chairs have chosen to resign from the Board of Governors immediately following the end of their chairmanship, this is a matter of personal professional choice rather than a legal requirement. The current forecast accounts for the distinction between the expiration of his leadership role and the potential for him to continue serving as a governor. Consequently, the analysis weighs the strong historical precedent for departure against the legal possibility that he may opt to remain on the Board for the remainder of his term.


Provenance

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SHA-256: e8cf733209a6c5320a757492810f9a16f29383ec9738b8d67814a7c31703767a

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