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The Oracle · Polymarket

Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

Predicted · Resolved

Pythia’s forecast Resolved: YES correct
63.6% Our forecast
53.0% Market at prediction
+10.6pp Edge
45% Confidence
View on Polymarket ⛓ Timestamped proof

Analysis

The structural math (P(R advances) × P(Hilton is that R) + P(two Rs)) supports ~58-60%, but the IVP poll showing Hilton 3rd is a serious counterpoint.

Provenance

This analysis is timestamped via OpenTimestamps — anchored in Bitcoin block 957898 — proving it existed before the outcome was known.

SHA-256: 57d26cec12a0d81f41eb965b2764840b734152d88fe172a95edfc4edf86dc202

Download content.md · Download .ots proof

Verification needs both files: confirm the text’s hash with sha256sum content.md, then check the proof against it — drag both into opentimestamps.org or run ots verify content.md.ots locally.

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