Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?

Analysis

Resolution hinges on Sonnet 5.5's day-one score on the no-style-control tab. The genuine upside (AA index near Opus, verbose output rewarded on NSC) keeps me above 50%, but nothing verifiable supports the market's 86.5%, which implies a debut well above any historical Sonnet.

Key Evidence

Verified live: Sonnet 5.5 not yet on the board. On the resolution (no-style-control) page: Opus 5.5-high 1518, Opus 5-high 1504, Sonnet 4.6 1458, Sonnet 5-high 1443; 1470 = rank 29/409. No Sonnet has ever hit 1470 on this tab; the June Sonnet 5 market at the same bar resolved NO. Same-gen Sonnet–Opus NSC gap of 46–61 applied to 1518 gives 1457–1472 (borderline, centered below). Bull factors: AA index 56 vs Opus 5.5's 58, and 'heavy talker' verbosity rewarded without style control.

Risks

Sonnet 5.5 turns out to have an Opus-like verbose chat style, so the historical ~15-pt no-style-control penalty for Sonnets vanishes; it debuts at ~1480-1490 NSC (trailing Opus 5.5 by <40) and clears 1470 comfortably.