Will the Democratic Party win the TN-06 House seat?
| Predicted at | 2026-03-02 11:01 UTC |
|---|---|
| Prediction | 0.2% |
| Market (at prediction) | 8.0% |
| Market (live) | — |
Analysis
All 8 agents agree this is an extremely safe Republican seat with probability ranging 1-7%. The six most evidence-grounded agents cluster at 1-3%. The district's R+17 PVI and 36-point margin in 2024 make a Democratic win virtually impossible under any plausible scenario. Even the strongest Democratic wave in modern history (2018) saw no district this red become competitive. The market at 8% is significantly overpriced relative to the ~3% true probability. The sibling Republican market at 90% is consistent with this assessment. Edge of ~5 points on a well-evidenced, structurally determined outcome makes this a viable TRADE_NO.
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