The Oracle · Polymarket
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?
Predicted · Closes
Analysis
Chaining P(timely release)~30-35% × P(takes #1 | release)~40% plus small residual paths yields ~15-17%.
Risks
The dominant risk is the unverifiable Astra release timing.
Provenance
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SHA-256: 9b1d235c709781a4e8c0faf8ee7792b849f21e7e506746f3299386871f581011
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