Will AfD win 28-31 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

Analysis

The upcoming Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election is scheduled for September 20, 2026, to determine the composition of the 9th Landtag. Recent polling data indicates the AfD is polling at approximately 35.7%, representing a significant increase from their 2021 election performance. Because the Landtag consists of at least 71 seats, the final seat distribution depends on the proportional representation system and the performance of other parties. While current polling suggests a strong showing, the final seat count remains subject to voter turnout and the impact of potential overhang or leveling seats. Proprietary signals and historical election data suggest that translating percentage support into specific seat counts involves accounting for these complex electoral mechanics.

Risks

It is resolution day and a NO trade lost: AfD polled its stable 35–36%, SPD incumbency held enough constituencies to keep AfD's direct-mandate haul at or below its proportional entitlement, no significant overhang occurred, and AfD landed on 29–30 seats — the modal projection — resolving YES.