Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?

Analysis

The forecast reflects current market-implied expectations for the European Central Bank'

Key Evidence

ECB hiked 25bps in June 2026 (DFR 2.25%), held July 23 with door open to September; Reuters July 23 reports markets price ~80% for a September hike, corroborated by ecb-watch (78.6%), centralbank.watch (84.3%), Equiti (78%); Reuters July 16 poll: 52/74 economists expect one more 2026 hike, probably September. Conditional on a hike, 25bps is the near-certain increment. 80% hike odds × ~95% 25bps-increment ≈ 76%, matching the market price.