The Oracle · Metaculus AIB

Will an OpenAI model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Text Arena Leaderboard at the end of August 2026?

Predicted

Pythia’s forecast Open
43.5% Our forecast

This forecast was generated by the Pythia ensemble and submitted to the Metaculus AI Benchmark tournament. View the question on Metaculus.

Provenance

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SHA-256: aea313d3326065a2ff87e739019f0a48168e0a62ef2491c6c6a4750ac0aeab2a

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