Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 4.00% and 4.49%?

Analysis

The consensus among financial analysts, as reflected in the October 2026 Citigroup survey, suggests a median year-end inflation forecast for Mexico of 3.90%. This figure sits slightly below the specified range of 4.00% to 4.49%, indicating that current market expectations lean toward a lower outcome. While recent data from INEGI shows annual inflation trends, the broader economic outlook remains subject to volatility influenced by monetary policy and undisclosed proprietary signals. Consequently, the probability reflects the uncertainty inherent in long-term inflation forecasting and the possibility of deviations from the current median estimate. The analysis incorporates these survey expectations alongside historical inflation data provided by the Banco de México.

Key Evidence

Consensus end-2026 median 3.87% (Banxico survey, Oct 1) / 3.90% (Citi, Oct 20) sits only 0.10-0.13pp below the floor; typical 3-month-ahead forecast error is 0.2-0.3pp, so a normal-distribution mass in [4.00,4.49] is ~28-34%. Upside catalysts: low Q4-2025 base (Oct +0.36, Dec +0.28), inflation accelerating 3.10→3.45% Jul→Sep, non-core jumping to 2.45%, peso at ~18.7 (11-month low) on Oct 21-22, diesel +11.5% in Sep. Downside: Banxico's own Q4 forecast 3.5%, core easing to 3.75%, weak growth.

Risks

December 2026 prints 3.75-3.95% exactly as the consensus (3.87-3.90%) and Banxico (Q4 avg 3.5%) imply: Q4 monthly inflation averages ~0.55-0.6% like 2022-2025, the peso shock fades, and the 1H-October print (which I could not retrieve) was soft.