Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 95 mph?

Analysis

This is a weather-threshold market where the decisive fact is verifiable in real time. I verified: (1) the market is NOT already resolved (Agent 2 misread a 2018 climatology article; month-to-date peak ~83 mph); (2) TODAY's official NWS summit forecast calls for sustained 70-80 mph W winds with gusts possibly to 100 mph during a frontal/thunderstorm passage this afternoon — this is the load-bearing fact and it checks out; (3) multiple additional 'Very windy' periods with convection are forecast through the next week. Pricing: today's event alone — with sustained 70-80 and a 100 mph gust ceiling — merits roughly 30-40% for a 95+ gust (ceiling forecasts verify at/above ceiling maybe a quarter to a third of the time, but the gap from 80 sustained to 95 gust is small on this summit). Add ~10-15% for the remaining 15 days (Saturday night 'Very windy' with 100% PoP thunderstorms is a real second shot; climatological residual otherwise). That gives ~40-45%. The market at 19% appears stale — the price trend shows no movement since July 14, before this forecast cycle and before the 83 mph event was even fully digested. The ensemble trimmed mean (31.5%) is dragged down by agents using stale data. I set 42% with self-confidence 0.72 because I personally verified the forecast text from the primary source today. Edge vs 19% is ~23 points, liquidity is present, and this is a physical-measurement market with unambiguous resolution (F6 whole-mph). Note the sibling ladder: 90 mph at 38% vs 95 mph at 19% is internally consistent-ish, but both look cheap given today's forecast; I stay with the market under review since my research prices the 95 threshold directly. Category is 'other' (52% track record), so I size expectations modestly, but the evidence is specific, time-stamped, and primary-source.

Key Evidence

Verified directly from NWS Gray/Portland text forecast for Mount Washington summit, issued 5:28 am EDT July 16, 2026 (resolution day window, TODAY): 'Very windy, with a west wind 55 to 65 mph increasing to 70 to 80 mph. Winds could gust as high as 100 mph.' Current obs at 7:50 am already showed W 49 G 61 mph before the peak of the event. Additionally, 'Very windy' appears on Sat night, Sun, Sun night, and Tue night, giving multiple further shots in the remaining 15 days. Month-to-date peak ~83 mph (July 14-15 thunderstorm per Agent 7); Agent 2's 'already resolved' claim is a misread of the July 2018 climatology article and is rejected.

Risks

It's July 31 and the trade lost: the July 16 wind event peaked at 80-90 mph — the '100 mph' NWS gust ceiling was an upper-bound point forecast that verified low (mountain gust forecasts routinely overshoot the ceiling), and the remaining two weeks of July produced only typical 50-70 mph summer peaks, leaving the monthly F6 max just under 95 mph.

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