Will the Republican Party win the TX-21 House seat?

Predicted at2026-07-22 10:16 UTC
Prediction95.4%
Market (at prediction)89.0%
Market (live)

Analysis

The 21st Congressional District of Texas is currently represented by Chip Roy, who has publicly announced his intention to vacate the seat to pursue the office of Texas Attorney General in 2026. Historical electoral data indicates that this district has consistently maintained a strong Republican lean in recent cycles. Analysis of the district's partisan composition suggests a significant structural advantage for the Republican Party in general elections. While the seat will be open, the combination of established voting patterns and the district's political baseline informs the current outlook. These factors are further supported by proprietary signals regarding candidate recruitment and local political trends.


View on Polymarket

Timestamped via OpenTimestamps (pending Bitcoin confirmation)

SHA-256: b870b0b3d6c88ed58041d2a63ab9065908012e1439c06ec45bc792c9204c8892

Download content.md · Download .ots proof

Verification needs both files. Download them, confirm the text’s hash with sha256sum content.md, then check the proof against it — drag both into opentimestamps.org or run ots verify content.md.ots locally. The .ots proof anchors that SHA-256 into a Bitcoin block, showing this analysis existed before the outcome was known.

This page is for informational and research purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial advice. Do not make investment decisions based on these predictions.