The Oracle · Polymarket

Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30?

Predicted · Resolved

Pythia’s forecast Resolved: NO correct
3.1% Our forecast
38.0% Market at prediction
-34.9pp Edge
82% Confidence

Analysis

The UK has proscribed approximately 80 organizations under the Terrorism Act 2000, but has never designated an entire branch of a foreign state's military apparatus as a terrorist organization. Current government policy maintains that the IRGC does not meet the legal criteria for proscription because it functions as a state military organ rather than a non-state actor. While there is significant domestic and international pressure for such a designation, the government has not introduced the necessary legislative changes to overcome this structural barrier. Consequently, the absence of a clear legal pathway or active legislative movement makes a formal designation within the specified timeframe historically unprecedented and procedurally unlikely.


Provenance

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