The Oracle · Polymarket
Will John Carter be the Republican nominee for TX-31?
Predicted · Resolved
Analysis
The core case is strong: 12-term incumbent, Trump endorsement, fragmented weak opposition (Gomez banned/registration suspended), and >95% historical base rate for incumbents. The main risk is the declining vote share trend (82→71→65%) potentially pushing him below 50% with 9 challengers, triggering a Texas runoff. However, even in a runoff he'd be strongly favored with Trump's endorsement. The market at 84.5% is reasonably efficient here.
Provenance
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