Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate at the February meeting?

Analysis

The Bank of Israel has recently demonstrated a preference for maintaining interest rates following a period of previous cuts, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy. Current economic conditions, including fluctuations in the strength of the shekel against the dollar, suggest that policymakers may prioritize stability to manage inflationary pressures. While specific forward guidance for the February meeting remains subject to evolving macroeconomic data, the central bank's recent history indicates a tendency to pause adjustments to assess the impact of prior decisions. This outlook is further supported by undisclosed signals regarding the bank's current focus on balancing currency volatility with broader economic growth targets. Consequently, the prevailing trend points toward a continuation of the existing interest rate environment.

Key Evidence

Verified via Gamma/CLOB: the '25bp decrease' rung's 0% is a thin-book artifact (76 shares at 0.003, then 0.07, then jumps to 0.34+), but the '50+ bps increase' rung is genuinely bid 0.23/ask 0.24 (last trade 0.32, $2.7k liquidity) for an event I put at ~2–3%: BOI inflation 1.6% (below 2% midpoint), committee just paused an easing cycle, own forecast points to 3.0%, and historical BOI response to war/supply shocks has been patience + FX tools, not 50bp hikes.

Risks

Secondary risk: thin book means poor fills rather than a loss.