The Oracle · Polymarket

Will the Republicans win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026?

Predicted

Pythia’s forecast Open
99.4% Our forecast
91.5% Market at prediction
+7.9pp Edge
Market now
95% Confidence

Analysis

The historical record for U.S. Senate elections in Wyoming demonstrates a consistent pattern of Republican success, with the party winning every contest held over the past 50 years. This represents a streak of 18 consecutive victories, reflecting the state's status as one of the most reliably Republican jurisdictions in the country. When analyzing similar Senate races in deep-red states, the base rate of Republican victory remains exceptionally high. Given the stability of these electoral outcomes over several decades, the historical data serves as a primary indicator for future expectations in this specific contest.


Provenance

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