2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds under 15% by March 31?

Analysis

Two agents (2,5) failed research and should be excluded. Remaining 6 agents cluster 22-35% with effective mean ~30.3%. The critical finding is that Republican odds are already at ~18%, very close to the 15% threshold. However, the 4-hour sustained window requirement is a meaningful barrier, and the sibling market structure (under 10% at 3%, over 25% at 95%) strongly implies the market sees a floor near current levels with expected bounce-back. The derivative market at 30.5% appears well-calibrated to these competing forces. With only ~1.5% potential edge and high uncertainty about liquidity dynamics, this does not meet the >5% edge threshold for a trade.

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