Fact Check: is L.A. U-Haul attack perp a U.S. Citizen?

Analysis

Seven of eight agents with meaningful research converge on 10-22% probability, with strong consensus on the key dynamics. Agent 5 (72%) is a clear outlier that over-weighted the historical base rate (>90% of domestic attackers are citizens) while under-weighting the critical resolution mechanism: this market doesn't ask WHETHER he's a citizen, it asks whether citizenship will be CONFIRMED by official sources or credible reporting by Feb 28. Agent 7 (50%) had incomplete research and zero confidence, so should be discarded entirely.

The strongest evidence comes from Agents 1-4, who all independently found: (1) No official confirmation after 5+ weeks, (2) DA declined felony charges reducing scrutiny, (3) case downgraded to misdemeanor reckless driving, (4) Feb 2 court date passed without citizenship disclosure, (5) market defaults to No without confirmation. The base rate of >90% citizenship for domestic attackers is real but largely irrelevant — the question is about CONFIRMATION, not underlying truth.

The market at 16% already reflects this logic. My estimate of 12% is slightly below market, reflecting that the declining price trend (28.5% → 16% in 4 days) suggests continued downward pressure, and the remaining 12 days with a low-profile misdemeanor case provide very little mechanism for citizenship to be officially confirmed. However, the edge vs. market (4%) is too small to justify a TRADE_NO position given transaction costs and uncertainty. The ensemble mean of 25.5% is an artifact of Agent 5's outlier (72%) and Agent 7's uninformative 50% — excluding these two, the remaining six agents average ~13.7%, much closer to market price.

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