Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31?

Analysis

All 8 agents converge tightly (3-9%, mean 6.25%) on a low probability, representing strong consensus. The key evidence is overwhelming: (1) Trump publicly defended Bondi as 'fantastic' - and only Trump can fire her; (2) historical base rate for AG departure within first year, let alone 6 weeks, is effectively 0%; (3) Bondi shows no signs of wanting to resign; (4) GOP-controlled House makes impeachment impossible; (5) Bondi announced release of all Epstein files on Feb 15, potentially defusing the crisis. The market spiked to 50% on Feb 12 during the hearing panic and has corrected sharply to ~10%, but still appears overpriced relative to fundamentals. The only credible upside risk is the WSJ report of Trump privately calling Bondi 'weak' - but even Trump's historical pattern with officials he dislikes (Sessions ~2 years, Tillerson ~14 months) suggests action takes months, not weeks. Agent 5 found the strongest specific evidence (WSJ private complaints) but still only estimated 7%. Agents 3 and 4 at 9% appropriately weighted the tail risk slightly higher but still well below market. The ensemble mean of 6.25% is sensible and well-supported. I set my estimate at 6% - slightly below the mean because Bondi's Feb 15 announcement of full Epstein file release likely further defuses the controversy. The market at 10.4% offers ~4.4% edge on a NO trade, which combined with the strong agent consensus and verifiable evidence (Trump's public statement, historical base rates) meets the threshold for a trade recommendation.

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