Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in February 2026 be between 2.2% and 2.4%?

Analysis

Seven of eight agents (excluding Agent 1 which failed) converge strongly on 11-18% probability, with the median at 14% matching the market price. Agent 1 (50%) is clearly an artifact of a failed research process and should be discarded entirely. The remaining agents show remarkable consensus on the key evidence: (1) January 2026 was 2.9%, continuing a 5-month acceleration trend; (2) February faces major utility tariff increases adding ~0.5pp; (3) food prices surged 2.5% in the first week of February; (4) most private forecasters project 2.5-2.8%; (5) only 2 of ~5 major consultancies (Equilibra at 2.3%, OJF at 2.4%) fall within the target range. The sibling market structure is informative: 2.5-2.7% at 28% and 2.8-3.0% at 24% receive the bulk of probability mass, consistent with the evidence. The REM survey's 2.1% forecast is discredited by its systematic underestimation (predicted 2.4% for January, actual was 2.9%). To believe the market is wrong and this should be higher, I'd need to believe food prices will sharply moderate in the second half of February AND tariff pass-through will be muted - possible but against the weight of evidence. The ensemble mean of 18.4% is inflated by Agent 1's garbage 50% estimate; the true informed ensemble mean excluding Agent 1 is ~13.9%, essentially matching the market at 14%. There is no meaningful edge here - the market is correctly priced based on the available evidence. The narrow 0.2pp target range, strong upward momentum, and tariff pressures all argue this is appropriately priced around 13-14%.

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