Will Canada’s February 2026 unemployment rate be 6.5%?

Analysis

7 of 8 agents estimate below market price, with strong consensus on key facts: January's 6.5% was artificially driven by labor force exit, not employment strength. The precision requirement (landing in 6.45-6.54% band) combined with recent 0.3pp monthly volatility makes exact repetition unlikely. Trading Economics professional forecast of 6.7% suggests upward bias. Sibling market analysis (summing to 209%) confirms systematic overpricing across all outcomes. Agent 6 at 35% appears to over-weight status quo bias. The strongest agents (1, 2, 3, 7, 8) all converge around 19-30% with well-documented reasoning. Setting probability at 25% - near ensemble mean - gives ~11% edge against market price of 36%, which exceeds the 5% threshold with moderate confidence.

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