Will Cornyn flip Paxton for Texas Rep Senate Primary Winner by March 2?

Analysis

All 8 agents converge on 15-23% with identical evidence and reasoning. The core issue is that Paxton leads the underlying Polymarket by ~45 points, and the only realistic catalyst (Trump endorsement of Cornyn) appears unlikely given Trump's stated preference to back winners and reluctance to endorse. Early voting starting Feb 17 further reduces the window for dramatic shifts. The market at 20% is close to fair value - my estimate of 17% gives only ~3% edge on NO, which is insufficient given the tail risk of a whale-driven temporary flip or surprise endorsement. The YES=20% toxic bucket warning applies here - this is exactly the zone where marginal NO bets have historically been unprofitable. SKIP is the correct call.

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