Will Dick Durbin vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?

Analysis

Six of eight agents produced substantive research and converged strongly on 22-28%, with two failed agents defaulting to 50% (pulling the mean up artificially). Excluding the two failed agents, the effective mean is ~26%, and the median of all agents is 28%. The consensus is remarkably strong: every substantive agent found the same core evidence — Durbin voted Nay on Jan 29, voted Nay on cloture Feb 12, is personally leading ICE reform demands, negotiations are stalled, and DHS is in partial shutdown with Congress on recess. Durbin is priced at 31.5% while Schumer is at 60% and Murray at 61%, correctly reflecting Durbin's more hardline stance as the leading voice on immigration enforcement reform. The ~30% probability accounts for two scenarios: (1) a deal is reached with sufficient ICE reforms before March 31 and Durbin votes Yea (~20-25% chance), and (2) no passage vote occurs by March 31, resolving No. Durbin's specific, publicly stated conditions make him one of the last Democrats to flip. Even if a deal passes, he could vote Nay while enough other Democrats support it. My estimate of 27% is slightly below market (31.5%) but the edge of ~4.5% is insufficient to justify a trade given the uncertainty around deal dynamics and the ~6 weeks remaining for negotiations.

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