Will February 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?
| Predicted at | 2026-02-16 04:13 UTC |
|---|---|
| Prediction | 98.6% |
| Market (at prediction) | 81.5% |
| Market (live) | — |
Analysis
7/8 agents agree Feb 2026 will be 4th or lower, with the primary disagreement being confidence level rather than direction. Agents 1 and 7 directly accessed the resolution source and found Feb 2026 at 108, which ranks 6th. Even skeptical agents note that reaching 3rd place (126) would require an unprecedented ~0.18°C jump from current trajectory during La Niña/neutral conditions. The sibling market (22% for 3rd) provides a useful cross-check — implying 78% for 4th or lower, which I believe underprices the evidence. The ~10.5% edge over market price is justified by specific, verifiable evidence from the actual resolution source. I discount slightly from the highest agent estimates (99%) because the data may be preliminary and February isn't complete, but the margin to 3rd place is so large that even substantial upward revision wouldn't change the outcome.
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