Will John Carter be the Republican nominee for TX-31?

Analysis

All 8 agents agree Carter is the heavy favorite (range 85-96%, mean 87.6%). The core case is strong: 12-term incumbent, Trump endorsement, fragmented weak opposition (Gomez banned/registration suspended), and >95% historical base rate for incumbents. The main risk is the declining vote share trend (82→71→65%) potentially pushing him below 50% with 9 challengers, triggering a Texas runoff. However, even in a runoff he'd be strongly favored with Trump's endorsement. My estimate of 87% is close to the ensemble mean and ~2.5% above market price. This edge is too small to trade confidently - it falls below the 5% threshold, and the absence of any polling data means we're largely extrapolating from structural factors. Agent 2's 96% overweights incumbency without adequately pricing runoff risk. Agents 3 and 5 at 85% appropriately account for the declining trend but may slightly underweight how devastating Gomez's problems are for the challenger field. The market at 84.5% is reasonably efficient here.

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