Will Raja Krishnamoorthi be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?

Analysis

All 8 agents agree Krishnamoorthi is favored (range 60-73%, mean 69%). The evidence is specific and verifiable: consistent double-digit polling leads across 10+ polls, massive fundraising advantage, and early voting already underway. The market at 56% implies near-parity which contradicts all available polling data. The strongest counter-arguments (Stratton momentum, Pritzker money, endorsement gap, undecideds) are real but insufficient to justify a coin-flip probability when the frontrunner leads by 11-20 points with votes already being cast. Agent 4 provided the most nuanced analysis noting second-choice dynamics and Stratton's momentum, which tempers my estimate slightly below the most bullish agents. Edge of ~12% over market price with moderate confidence warrants a trade.

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