Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?

Analysis

All 8 agents converge tightly (20-28%, σ=3%) around ~22-24%. The evidence is remarkably consistent: Russia has a foothold in southern Hryshyne but the target intersection is in the center, ISW shows a multi-day stall with repelled assaults, advance rates have slowed, and Ukrainian defenses are holding. The market has already corrected sharply from 36.5% to 25% over 4 days, pricing in this same information. My estimate of 22% gives only ~3% edge against the 25% market price, well below the 5% threshold for a trade. While I'm fairly confident the true probability is below 25%, the edge is insufficient to justify a position, especially given the YES=0.20 bucket toxicity warning and the inherent uncertainty in military outcomes over 6 weeks.

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