Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting?

Analysis

Agents split into two camps: those emphasizing hawkish signals (pause, inflation, BBVA guidance) at 28-42%, and those giving more weight to Heath's board dynamics revelation and BofA forecast at 45-50%. The ensemble mean of 41.5% vs market price of 49.5% suggests a potential edge on NO, but the edge is only ~6.5% and the confidence is very low (std dev only 6.5%). The single most important unknown - February inflation data - hasn't been released yet and will likely be decisive. Heath's comment about expecting to dissent (implying majority favors cutting) is genuinely strong evidence for YES that partially offsets the inflation concerns. The sibling market ('no change' at 56%) implies ~43% for a cut, which aligns closely with my estimate. Given the genuine uncertainty, low confidence across agents, and the critical unknown of February inflation data, the edge is too thin and speculative to trade.

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