Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

Analysis

All 8 agents converge tightly on 89-95% probability of a hold, with a mean of 92.9% and low standard deviation (1.8%). This is a strong consensus. Every agent identified the same core evidence: (1) CME FedWatch at 90-94% hold probability, (2) Fed held in January 2026 establishing a pause pattern, (3) strong January jobs report (130K vs 66K expected), (4) inflation at 2.4% still above 2% target, (5) Fed officials signaling extended hold. The only downside risks identified are weak (two dissents in January, potential data surprises, black swan events). Agent 6 (Kimi) was the most conservative at 89% but still directionally aligned. Agent 5 was highest at 95%. The slight disagreement is about how much tail risk to assign to unexpected shocks, not about the fundamental direction. The market price at 92.5% is essentially identical to the ensemble mean of 92.9%. The sibling markets confirm this: 25bp cut at 6%, 50bp+ cut at 1%, rate increase at 1% — summing to ~8% for any change, consistent with 92% hold. My estimate of 93% is marginally above market price but the edge (0.5%) is far below the 5% threshold needed for a trade. The evidence is strong and specific but it's already fully priced in. No informational advantage exists here.

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