Will Trump say “Low IQ” by February 28?

Analysis

Agents split into three camps: high-confidence YES (Agents 1,4,7 at 85-99%) based on specific evidence claims that may predate market creation; moderate YES (Agents 2,5,8 at 72-75%) based on base rates; and near-coin-flip (Agents 3,6 at 48-55%) based on transcript checking finding nothing in February. The base rate argument is compelling - ~1 use/week over 12 days gives roughly 82% probability assuming independence, but adjusting down for: (1) market hasn't resolved suggesting no confirmed instance in first 4-5 days, (2) presidential context may reduce frequency, (3) market traders at 60% have real-time monitoring advantage. Agent 7's evidence of a Feb 15 Facebook video is potentially decisive but unverified. Settling at 70% reflects the strong base rate tempered by market signal and lack of confirmed resolution.

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