Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?

Analysis

All 8 agents converge on a probability well below the market price of 17.5%, with a tight range of 4-14% and mean of 10.1%. This is strong consensus. The evidence is specific, recent, and verifiable: multiple February 2026 polls consistently show Raffensperger at 8-10%, a declining trajectory from 15% in November 2025. He faces structural headwinds - 73-74% Trump-aligned electorate, Trump endorsement of Jones, billionaire Jackson's $50M campaign running attack ads against him specifically. The Rasmussen poll showing 18% appears to be an outlier against three other polls showing 8-10%. Even the most optimistic agents (1 and 7 at 14%) are below market price. Agent 3 (4%, confidence 0.85) and Agent 2 (6%, confidence 0.78) had the strongest evidence-based cases, noting Cook Political Report frames this as a two-man Jackson vs Jones race. The anti-confirmation cascade check: for the market to be right at 17.5%, I'd need to believe either (a) the Rasmussen poll is more accurate than three other polls, (b) Jackson collapses as a newcomer, or (c) massive late movement from the 37-48% undecided pool breaks toward Raffensperger. While (b) is possible, even if Jackson collapses, those voters likely go to Jones (Trump-endorsed) rather than Raffensperger. The edge is 17.5% - 9% = 8.5%, exceeding the 5% threshold. The sibling market shows Rick Jackson isn't even listed separately (implying 'Other' at ~51%), while Jones is at 40% and Carr at 6% - consistent with Raffensperger being a distant third. I set my probability at 9%, slightly below ensemble mean, weighting the agents with strongest evidence (2, 3, 5, 8) who all found declining polls and structural barriers.

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