Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?

Analysis

Six of eight agents estimate 42-53%, with only Agent 2 at 68% pulling the mean up. The core question is the DPK primary, where polling is genuinely mixed but Kim leads in more polls. Decomposing: ~50% primary win × ~87% general election win ≈ 43-48%. The market at 58% appears to over-weight Choo's momentum from a single February poll while ignoring Kim's consistent leads elsewhere. The 10-point edge (58% market vs ~48% estimate) exceeds the 5% threshold, though confidence is moderate given primary uncertainty and the possibility of unobserved party dynamics favoring Choo. The gender barrier (0/87) provides additional structural headwind not fully reflected in polling.

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