Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?

Analysis

Agents split into two camps: structural optimists (78-82%) emphasizing fragmented opposition and bonus seat mechanism, and cautious pessimists (62-68%) emphasizing low approval and Karapetyan surge. The structural argument is stronger for this specific question (most seats, not majority). However, the edge vs market price (74%) is minimal. The 62% agents over-weight head-to-head polls irrelevant to a multi-party proportional election. The 80%+ agents may under-weight the genuine uncertainty from massive undecided pool and Karapetyan's momentum. My estimate of 75% is essentially at market price, making this a SKIP - no actionable edge despite reasonable confidence in the directional assessment.

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