Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?

Analysis

All 8 agents agree on the core facts: Park trails significantly in polls, the national environment is terrible for PPP, but Busan's conservative base and Chun's legal jeopardy provide a floor. The disagreement is only about magnitude (22-35% range, std dev 4.8%). My estimate of 28% aligns with the ensemble median of 29% and reflects that current polling and national conditions strongly favor Chun, offset by ~15-20% probability of scandal-driven disruption. However, the edge vs. market price (31%) is only ~3 points, well below the 5% threshold needed for a trade recommendation. The evidence is strong and specific but the market appears to already incorporate it reasonably well.

View on Polymarket