Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Analysis

All 8 agents converge tightly on 11-13% (σ=0.008), matching the market price of 11%. The evidence is well-researched and consistent: Republicans hold ~218-220 seats, the 200-204 range requires a 14-18 seat loss, which is plausible but represents just one 5-seat bin in a wide distribution. The Cook floor of 202 seats supports this range as plausible, but Trump's low approval and generic ballot leads suggest the distribution mode may be below 200 (consistent with 58% sibling market weight below 200). Agent 6 and 7 had the strongest district-level evidence via Cook ratings. No agent found evidence suggesting significant mispricing. The 1% edge is far too small to trade, especially given 9 months of uncertainty remaining. This is a well-priced market.

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